Pascal's Probability Theory and God's Exsistance - 09/24/04 03:44 AM
ehem:
"for the sake of arguement, imagine for the moment that there's a 50-50 change that God exsists. Now, choosing the [God] envelope is equivalent to choosing to be a devout [believer]. If you happen to choose this path there are two possibilities. If you are a faithful [believer] and there is no God, you just fade into nothingness when you die. But if there is a God, you got to heaven and live for eternity in bliss: infinity. So the expecte value of being a [believer] is:
1/2 chance of fading into nothing: 1/2 X 0 = 0
1/2 chance of going to heaven: 1/2 X infinity = infinity
_________________________________________________________
Expectation = infinity
After all, half of infinity is still infinity. Thus, the value of being a [believer] is infinite. Now what happens if you are an athiest? If you are correct - there is no God - you gain nothing from being right. After all, if there is no God, there is no heaven. But if you are wrong and there is a God, you go to hell for an eternity: negative infinity. So the expected value of being an athiest is:
1/2 chance of fading into nothing: 1/2 X 0 = 0
1/2 chance of going to hell: 1/2 X negative infinity = negative infinity
____________________________________________________
Expectation = negative infinity
Negative infinity. The value is as bad as you can possibly get. The wise person would clearly choose [believing] instead of atheism.
But we made an assumption here - that there is a 50-50 chance that God exsists. What happens if there is only a 1/1000 chance? That value of being a [believer] would be:
999/1000 chance of fading into nothing: 999/1000 X 0 = 0
1/1000 chance of going to heaven: 1/1000 X infinity = infinity
__________________________________________________
Expectation = infinity
[Based on the properties of infinity] it's still the same." (Zero: the Biography of a Dangerous Idea, Seife)
I think that's the most interesting thing I've ever read.
"for the sake of arguement, imagine for the moment that there's a 50-50 change that God exsists. Now, choosing the [God] envelope is equivalent to choosing to be a devout [believer]. If you happen to choose this path there are two possibilities. If you are a faithful [believer] and there is no God, you just fade into nothingness when you die. But if there is a God, you got to heaven and live for eternity in bliss: infinity. So the expecte value of being a [believer] is:
1/2 chance of fading into nothing: 1/2 X 0 = 0
1/2 chance of going to heaven: 1/2 X infinity = infinity
_________________________________________________________
Expectation = infinity
After all, half of infinity is still infinity. Thus, the value of being a [believer] is infinite. Now what happens if you are an athiest? If you are correct - there is no God - you gain nothing from being right. After all, if there is no God, there is no heaven. But if you are wrong and there is a God, you go to hell for an eternity: negative infinity. So the expected value of being an athiest is:
1/2 chance of fading into nothing: 1/2 X 0 = 0
1/2 chance of going to hell: 1/2 X negative infinity = negative infinity
____________________________________________________
Expectation = negative infinity
Negative infinity. The value is as bad as you can possibly get. The wise person would clearly choose [believing] instead of atheism.
But we made an assumption here - that there is a 50-50 chance that God exsists. What happens if there is only a 1/1000 chance? That value of being a [believer] would be:
999/1000 chance of fading into nothing: 999/1000 X 0 = 0
1/1000 chance of going to heaven: 1/1000 X infinity = infinity
__________________________________________________
Expectation = infinity
[Based on the properties of infinity] it's still the same." (Zero: the Biography of a Dangerous Idea, Seife)
I think that's the most interesting thing I've ever read.